Jared W. Smith

Base reflectivity image of a severe thunderstorm over Hilton Head Island on July 10, 2010.

This severe thunderstorm, referred to as extremely dangerous by the Charleston National Weather Service, was about as intense as advertised, and was quite a scare for one driver, as this NWS storm report illustrates (emphasis added):

CHS: 1 W Hilton Head Island [Beaufort Co, SC] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG at 05:34 PM EDT — large oak tree fell on car at intersection of jenkins island road and hwy 278. driver uninjured.

Yeesh. Glad the driver’s OK. Here’s a roundup of today’s storm reports — was a windy one out there on Tybee Island.

Invest 96 (July 2010) 2PM model run (via Weather Underground). What does THIS look like?

If these model runs are any indication (and they should not be taken as gospel), it looks like Bonnie will just be another Alex retread (at least in terms of path; intensity is very hard to tell but it doesn’t look like it will have nearly the time to get it together as Alex did). More rain for south Texas and central Mexico looks inevitable. Pretty sure they’re still drying out from Alex down there.

Tropical Weather Outlook, July 4, 2010 at 8PM, via the National Hurricane Center.

Nothing like checking the BlackBerry and seeing not one, not two, but four areas of potential tropical development in the Atlantic. While the storm in the Caribbean (#2 on the map above) has the best shot at developing soon, the storm near the Lesser Antilles (storm 4) could see some slow development over the next few days and might be worth watching. Read tonight’s Tropical Weather Outlook for more. They said it was going to be a busy year — I suspect we’ll see a lot of outlooks like these over the next few months.

Base velocity image of Hurricane Alex from Brownsville Doppler RADAR at 10:51 PM ET.

Hurricane Alex made landfall on the Mexican coast tonight as a Category 2 hurricane. The velocity image above is pretty ominous; the bright oranges and deep blues (indicating motion away from and toward the radar site to the north, respectively) are indicative of very strong winds upwards of 115-120 MPH (the radar beam at its lowest tilt, at a distance of 108 nautical miles from the Brownsville radar, is looking at the hurricane at around 14,000 feet, hence the slightly higher winds from the advertised 105 MPH surface winds at landfall). The base reflectivity image is pretty impressive as well, showing lots of spiral rain bands being tossed into south Texas. The most startling image though is the estimated storm rain totals already exceeding a foot of rain in some spots. There will be much flooding before this is all said and done. Thoughts are with those in Texas and Mexico this evening as this storm pushes through.

Hurricane Alex's outer rain bands appear on Brownsville's WSR-88D Doppler RADAR.

Alex has become the first June hurricane in the Gulf since 1995. The forecast track has narrowed the cone of uncertainty pretty tightly as the day’s gone on, and it’s looking like the center will make landfall in Mexico, though extreme southern Texas is likely to still see hurricane-force winds (though in a storm like this, widespread flooding is the greatest threat and pretty much a certainty).